Military Inceptions and the Russo-Ukrainian War
In astrology, an inception defines any important point of initiation marking the beginning of something. Whether it be a human life, or other significant event, the idea is that if you cast a chart for the inception of a thing, the chart will describe something true about the nature of it and its future trajectory.
This is the chart I cast for the inception of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. I set the time for the moment Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a “special military operation” against Ukraine. Within minutes of the announcement Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian were reported, and Russian forces began pouring across the Russo-Ukrainian border. I treat event charts very differently than natal charts, and I tend to apply traditional interpretation a little more strictly in larger events like this because once the event has been initiated, the ability for one person to consciously shift the outcome is more limited than it is for individuals and their personal affairs. I’ll be referencing interpretations from The Astrological Works of Theophilus of Edessa, an 8th century Byzantine astrologer, and comparing ways they do or do not correlate with how events have transpired so far.
For those unfamiliar with the concept of sect, I’ll just say that it refers to the idea that certain planets tend to be a little stronger or better behaved during the day, and some do better at night.
Day sect: Sun, Jupiter, Saturn
Night sect: Moon, Venus, Mars
This is a night chart, so the Moon, Venus and Mars are of the sect in favor, while the Sun, Jupiter, and Saturn are out of sect.
Theophilus assigned the 1st house to the attacking army, and the 2nd house indicates allies and support. The 7th house indicates the defender, and the 8th, their allies and support. The Mars-Venus conjunction in the 1st house is a bit of a mixed indicator for Russia. Exalted Mars in Capricorn is rising and of the sect. This, according to Theopholis, is a positive indicator for the “good fortune and success of the army.” Venus rising, or “marking the hour,” also indicates an easy victory. Theophilus also said an aspect with Venus and Mars is favorable for war, however, about the conjunction he said that it indicates division, poor morale and complaining among the ranks. Of all the indicators this one seemed to play out as the overarching theme for the Russian army.
Also interesting is Saturn in Aquarius in the 2nd house, ruling the 1st, and promising something about the outcome of the action in question. While Theophilus does not say anything specifically about this placement specifically, night chart Saturn is going to tend to indicate more negative or difficult topics. Saturn in Aquarius may describe Russia’s alienation from the world community, as well as their supply issues and lack of allies. It’s interesting too because Saturn - being in its own sign but out of sect, and in Aquarius specifically - could be indicting limitations and isolation that isn’t favorable to the initiator of the action (i.e Russia,) but ends up being more positive or beneficial to the existing global power structure by helping to uphold the status quo.
The Moon in Sagittarius in the 12th house and ruling the 7th house, which is interesting as an indicator for Ukraine. While Theophilus identifies the 7th house ruler being located in the east (left side of the chart) as unfavorable, the 12th house also indicates things that undermine, fall away, or decline from the 1st house (i.e Russia). This could indicate that Ukraine, while certainly finding itself in 12th house circumstances, may not end up in Russian hands. In fact, this is increasingly becoming more and more likely the outcome.
The Moon is waning, which Theophilus described as favorable for the defender. The Moon is also being received by Jupiter in Pisces. Jupiter is in its own sign, though under the sun’s beams, out of sect, and cadent in the 3rd house. This could say something about the nature of Ukraine’s support being less direct, but also being tied to social media (house of communications). But also worth considering, is that the 3rd house is the 9th house from the 7th (Ukraine’s 9th house), which could make it a much more literal description of foreign, and to a large degree moral, support. The 9th is where you find mentors, so it could also describe all the training the Ukrainians have received from NATO over the last several years which has helped them gain some tactical advantages over the Russians. Furthermore, in stark contrast to the Russians, the Ukrainians have maintained exceptionally high morale despite all the loss and damage they’ve sustained. It seems that the war is having the effect of uniting the Ukrainian people under a common purpose and sense of national identity, which is just so Jupiter in Pisces. The 8th house, ruled by the Sun in Pisces, is also received by Jupiter, saying similar things about Ukraine’s support.
I’ve had my eye on the Mars-Saturn and Venus-Saturn conjunctions since the beginning as pointing to - at the very least - a significant development for Russian progress in the war. Theophilus said that Mars approaching the location of Saturn in the inception (transiting it) hardens and galvanizes the Army. I’ve been skeptical of his more positive interpretation though, especially in this context and how events unfolded. Interestingly, as those conjunctions got closer, the Ukrainian army counterattacked and forced Russia to retreat from Kiev to the Eastern part of Ukraine and Belarus. As Venus separated from Saturn, Ukrainians reoccupying the country reported scenes of mass executions and war crimes against the civilian population. Now with Mars separating from Saturn, Russia is on the back foot and doing damage control, looking for a way to salvage an increasingly untenable situation and save some face.
I was honestly surprised at the way things played out up until now, as most people were. I initially interpreted this chart as indicating victory for Russia, though probably a Pyrrhic one. But as things stand at the time of writing this, victory or not, it’s looking like an outright disaster for Russia. It certainly has me rethinking essential dignity a bit, or perhaps Pluto being in the conjunction with Mars and Venus has a lot more to say about the situation then I considered initially. But of course, the War isn’t over yet.
For all my morbid curiosity and eagerness to test my new battlefield astrology techniques, it is not my intention to reduce a serious and eminently consequential event down to an astrological exercise. I am hoping for a swift end to the conflict with as few people harmed as possible.
